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At this week’s British Hydrological Society symposium in Oxford, Mike Summers of the Environment Agency presented a recent project undertaken by APEM Group to design a new national monitoring network for river flow in England.
The talk, entitled “Using a logistic regression model to design a representative NCEA river flow monitoring network”, describes how APEM’s Water Data Science team developed and applied an innovative statistical approach to build a network of flow gauging stations that are representative of English rivers and able to provide an unbiased assessment of long-term trends in river flow.
The project forms part of Defra’s Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (NCEA) science innovation programme, which is developing new and improved monitoring networks, analysis and indicators to better assess the current and future status of England’s land and water ecosystems, natural capital, and the benefits they provide to society.
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The ability to accurately and cost-effectively measure how, where and how quickly our rivers are changing is becoming ever more important, and this new monitoring network will help provide the evidence we need to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.
– Dr Andy Davey, Associate Director Freshwater Data Science, APEM Group
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Climate change models predict a 45% decrease in summer flows and a 9% increase in winter flows by 2080, leading to an increased frequency and severity of both floods and droughts. The data from this new monitoring network will be used to track how climatic and non-climatic factors are affecting English rivers and contribute to understanding and managing changing patterns of water availability at a national scale.
For further information about the benefits of taking a statistical approach to environmental monitoring, see our blog.
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